What will the next 4 years be like? If he keeps his word, he will depart from several US policy consensuses, and each departure, given America’s power, can have major consequences
TRADING TENSIONS: He called himself Mr Tariff in his first term, he wants to be Master Tariff this time. Trump wants a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports into US, and 100% duty on Chinese cars. And he wants all tariffs, applicable to whichever other country is selling goods to US, to be raised to 20%. This is turbocharged protectionism. If Trump goes through with even a part of it, multilateral trade will be hit, because other major economies will raise tariffs. Bilateral trade treaties will gain even more currency.
BEIJING WILL GET IT BAD: China was already in Biden administration’s crosshairs, with laws denying export of cutting-edge tech. Trump will double down. Some of his advisers want a total decoupling with China. That may be hard to do. But he’ll likely push for a more hardline stand, not just on trade but also on what many American conservatives call Chinese ‘influence peddling’ in America.
NO FREE RIDE FOR ZELENSKY: Trump’s victory speech all but made it clear he won’t send weapons for free to Ukraine. And he will put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. That’ll likely mean Kyiv giving up claims on Russian-occupied territory. He may also oppose Ukraine’s Nato membership.
BIBI WILL HAVE A BLAST: Israeli PM Netanyahu, backed with some reservations by Biden, will be backed even more — minus most reservations — by Trump. He was the guy who said he was okay with Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. He’ll likely be okay with Bibi’s being aggressive, especially against Iran, which is enemy Number 2 (China’s first) for Trump. Whether Trump will stop Bibi from getting madly aggro – targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, for example – is the question.
CLIMATE CHANGE? THE HEAT’S BACK He’s dissed everything about climate change all over again, and promised to “drill, baby, drill”. He likely won’t join any multilateral deal on emission targets. Will he favour hydrocarbons over green tech domestically, especially given US advantage in developing the latter? Policy wonks will say he won’t. Don’t bet on them.
I’LL DO MY THING, YOU DO YOURS: Trump’s unlikely to be preachy about human rights or minority rights in other countries. He’s on record saying he doesn’t think America should spread its “values”. This is good news for some countries. But it’s bad news for Nato’s Europeans, who may have to finally find leadership among their own, especially vis-à-vis Russia. In Asia, countries like Japan, South Korea, India may have to rely less on American support on strategic matters.
TRADING TENSIONS: He called himself Mr Tariff in his first term, he wants to be Master Tariff this time. Trump wants a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports into US, and 100% duty on Chinese cars. And he wants all tariffs, applicable to whichever other country is selling goods to US, to be raised to 20%. This is turbocharged protectionism. If Trump goes through with even a part of it, multilateral trade will be hit, because other major economies will raise tariffs. Bilateral trade treaties will gain even more currency.
BEIJING WILL GET IT BAD: China was already in Biden administration’s crosshairs, with laws denying export of cutting-edge tech. Trump will double down. Some of his advisers want a total decoupling with China. That may be hard to do. But he’ll likely push for a more hardline stand, not just on trade but also on what many American conservatives call Chinese ‘influence peddling’ in America.
NO FREE RIDE FOR ZELENSKY: Trump’s victory speech all but made it clear he won’t send weapons for free to Ukraine. And he will put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. That’ll likely mean Kyiv giving up claims on Russian-occupied territory. He may also oppose Ukraine’s Nato membership.
BIBI WILL HAVE A BLAST: Israeli PM Netanyahu, backed with some reservations by Biden, will be backed even more — minus most reservations — by Trump. He was the guy who said he was okay with Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. He’ll likely be okay with Bibi’s being aggressive, especially against Iran, which is enemy Number 2 (China’s first) for Trump. Whether Trump will stop Bibi from getting madly aggro – targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, for example – is the question.
CLIMATE CHANGE? THE HEAT’S BACK He’s dissed everything about climate change all over again, and promised to “drill, baby, drill”. He likely won’t join any multilateral deal on emission targets. Will he favour hydrocarbons over green tech domestically, especially given US advantage in developing the latter? Policy wonks will say he won’t. Don’t bet on them.
I’LL DO MY THING, YOU DO YOURS: Trump’s unlikely to be preachy about human rights or minority rights in other countries. He’s on record saying he doesn’t think America should spread its “values”. This is good news for some countries. But it’s bad news for Nato’s Europeans, who may have to finally find leadership among their own, especially vis-à-vis Russia. In Asia, countries like Japan, South Korea, India may have to rely less on American support on strategic matters.
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