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Middle East tensions soar as Israel-Iran conflict escalates: 10 points to know

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The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated in recent months, with the two sides engaging in direct attacks and retaliatory strikes. The once "shadow war" has transformed into a more overt confrontation, raising concerns about the possibility of a full-scale regional crisis.

Both sides have issued warnings and threats, with Iran threatening further missile strikes and Israel preparing a major counterattack targeting Iran's strategic sites.

Here's the conflict explained in 10 data points:

TimelineIn the aftermath of Hamas ' deadly cross-border attack on October 7, 2023, which claimed the lives of 1,200 Israelis and led to the capture of 250 others, Israel and Hezbollah have been locked in almost daily exchanges of fire across the Lebanon border. The shift in Israel's focus from Gaza to Lebanon coincided with the assassination of Hamas' political bureau chairman, Haniyeh, on July 31, 2024, during his visit to Tehran.

Israel initiated a covert operation aimed at disrupting Hezbollah's command and control structure by employing sabotaged explosive communication devices. Following this, Israel conducted airstrikes that eliminated Hezbollah's top leadership, including Nasrallah. Subsequently, the Israeli military commenced what the nation's leaders referred to as a "limited [ground] operation" in southern Lebanon, with the objective of dismantling Hezbollah positions along the northern border.

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According to numerous Middle East experts and Iranian military leaders, Tehran's attack against Israel on October 1 was primarily a retaliatory action in response to the high-profile assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.

Iran vs Israel

The Middle East is on edge as the conflict between Iran and Israel continues to escalate, raising fears of a potential regional crisis that could have far-reaching consequences. The situation threatens to disrupt global oil markets, given Iran's significant role as a major crude oil producer.

In response to the heightened tensions, Iran has delivered stern warnings to Israel, stating that further missile strikes will be carried out if Israel retaliates. Meanwhile, Israel is gearing up for a substantial counteroffensive, potentially targeting Iran's critical infrastructure, including its oil production facilities and other strategically important locations.

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Israel's response is likely to encompass a combination of airstrikes, covert missions, and possibly even targeted assassinations. The United States has reaffirmed its commitment to Israel's right to self-defense, with President Joe Biden cautioning Iran of "severe consequences" for its actions.

7 prominent leaders killed in a week

The recent escalation of Israeli military operations in Lebanon has resulted in the deaths of seven prominent Hezbollah leaders and officials, including the group's top figure, Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah, a formidable militant organization, has long received support and funding from Iran. The targeted strikes, carried out within a span of just over a week, have left Lebanon and a significant portion of West Asia reeling from the shock, while Israeli authorities have lauded the operations as significant achievements in both military and intelligence domains.

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Despite the devastating blows dealt to Hezbollah, the conflict shows no indications of subsiding.

Who was Ismail Haniyeh?

Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran, Iran, according to a statement released by the organization. The attack also claimed the life of one of Haniyeh's bodyguards. At the time of his death, Haniyeh was in Iran along with other high-ranking members of the "axis of resistance," a network that primarily consists of Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. Haniyeh had been overseeing Hamas's political activities from exile in Qatar and Turkey.

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Prior to the assassination, Israel had issued warnings that it would target Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders in retaliation for the group's assault on Israel, which took place on October 7. The attack resulted in the deaths of 1,200 individuals and the capture of approximately 250 hostages.

Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the long-time leader of Hezbollah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the militant group's headquarters in southern Beirut, according to a statement released by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF announced, "Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world," following the strike.

Nasrallah had been at the helm of Hezbollah for more than 30 years, transforming it into one of the most formidable militant organizations in the Middle East. Under his leadership, the group gained significant influence and power in the region.

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The Israeli military operation targeted Hezbollah's stronghold hours after initial strikes on the group's facilities. The death of Nasrallah marks a significant blow to the organization and is likely to have far-reaching implications for the dynamics of the Middle East.

Nasrallah's successor?

Hashim Safieddine, the head of Hezbollah's central council, was considered the likely successor to Nasrallah.

However, late Thursday night, Israeli warplanes conducted a severe airstrike campaign, aiming to target Hashem Safieddine. The attack was among the most intense in the region since Israel's killing of Nasrallah. It remains uncertain whether Safieddine, believed to be attending a meeting with high-ranking Hezbollah officials, was killed in the airstrikes.

Safieddine, a cousin of the former Hezbollah leader, has strong religious and familial connections to Iran, the Shia Muslim movement's patron. His son is married to the daughter of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in 2020. Safieddine, like Nasrallah, joined Hezbollah early on and also wears a black turban. A source close to Hezbollah indicated that the grey-bearded, bespectacled Safieddine, believed to be in his late 50s or early 60s, was the most probable candidate for the party's leadership position.

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Israel's missile systems

To defend against a wide range of threats, Israel has developed a comprehensive, multi-layered missile defense system. This system is designed to intercept and neutralize various types of missiles, including high-altitude ballistic missiles, as well as low-flying cruise missiles and rockets. Israel's nuclear capabilities have been a topic of speculation for decades, as the nation maintains a policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear arsenal. The country's advanced missile defense technology aims to provide a robust shield against potential attacks from adversaries in the region.

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How Iron Dome works

The Iron Dome's radar detects an incoming rocket within its range and transmits data about the rocket's trajectory to the command-and-control center. The control center then computes the impact location and assesses whether the rocket is likely to hit populated areas. If the rocket is deemed a threat, a missile is launched to intercept and destroy it. However, if the system concludes that the rocket is headed towards an uninhabited area or the sea, it is allowed to land, thereby conserving missiles. The military states that all interceptions take place within Israeli airspace.

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Axis of Resistance

The 'axis of resistance' has steadily gained strength and influence over the years. Under the guidance of Qassem Suleimani in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the network experienced significant growth and expansion. Hezbollah, a prominent member of the axis based in Lebanon, boasts an impressive arsenal of up to 150,000 rockets and maintains a formidable military presence. The axis has also showcased its ability to execute coordinated attacks and exert influence on regional conflicts, presenting a serious challenge to US interests and allies in the Middle East.

Among the notable members of Iran's Axis of resistance are Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Hezbollah, a Shia militant group operating in Lebanon, stands as the most well-established and influential member of the axis. Despite the ideological differences between Hamas, a predominantly Sunni Islamist group, and Iran, a Shiite regime, the two found a shared purpose in their opposition to Israel.

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What next?

The recent direct assault by Iran on Israel has reignited concerns about the possibility of a broader conflict erupting in the Middle East, potentially involving two of the region's most heavily armed countries. In response to Iran launching a minimum of 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, which were largely intercepted by Israel's extensive air defence system and US naval destroyers, both Israel and the United States have cautioned Iran of impending "consequences."

The specific nature of these consequences remains uncertain at this point. However, Iran has declared that any retaliatory action taken by Israel will be countered with "stronger and more powerful" reciprocal measures. This raises additional questions about the potential escalation of this back-and-forth exchange and whether Iran is fully prepared for the ramifications if its future attacks on Israel manage to penetrate defences and strike an Israeli civilian area.

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