Has Rachel Reeves just thrown the biggest Budget sucker punch EVER? She'll deceive us all

I can't get my head round it. The Chancellor called an unprecedented pre-Budget breakfast news conference, but had nothing new to say. It began as a massive exercise in blame-shifting, blaming the Tories, Donald Trump and Nigel Farage for everything that has gone wrong on her watch.

That's what politicians do, of course. It's always somebody else's fault, usually the other lot. Reeves then went on to praise herself for things she hadn't done, such as cutting interest rates five times since August. As I recall, it was the Bank of England that did that.

The BoE might have cut rates further if a certain Chancellor hadn't introduced a £25billion jobs tax in the last Budget, waved through huge public-sector pay rises and hiked the minimum wage by 6.7%, driving up inflation. If I were Reeves, I'd keep my head down rather than call a press conference.

She also took time out to gripe about Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. Fair enough, I've done it myself. But that was more than three years ago. We've all moved on.

Also, isn't Reeves busy right now? I know she's hired someone else to write her Budget, but today felt like a waste of time. So what was she thinking?

It's not as though she enjoys being in front of cameras. These days she looks strained, in sad contrast to the triumphant figure she cut right after the election.

I don't like to see it. Honestly. I'd much rather she was in high spirits, crowing about the brilliant job she's doing, with the economy booming, unemployment tumbling and the cost-of-living crisis over. Alas, no.

Once the questions started, there were plenty she didn't want to answer, including a technical one about landlords renting without licences.

And she certainly wasn't going to say whether she'll increase income tax in the Budget, the only topic journalists cared about.

Afterwards something occurred to me. Something so ridiculous I dismissed it at first, but now I'm wondering one thing. Have we all just fallen for the biggest Budget sucker punch in history?

Right now, everyone's convinced Reeves and PM Keir Starmer will increase income tax on November 26, possibly by 2p in the pound.

But a nagging voice at the back of my head keeps whispering: what if that isn't the plan at all?

As yet, nobody knows for sure how much Reeves has to raise. It could be £25billion, it could be £50billion. What if it's the lower figure, and she can balance the books by hiking other taxes instead?

This Budget's already billed as the most hated in history. But what if the Chancellor wraps it up by saying she isn't hiking income tax? What if she's only pretending now, to make that news an even more joyous surprise?

Letting us all believe income tax is going up when it isn't would be brilliant political theatre. A grateful nation would celebrate. There'd be flags in the streets and this time, left-wing councils wouldn't tear them down.

I don't think she's got the fiscal room to do it. But the temptation must be enormous, given the political payoff it would deliver.

It's only a hunch, and I may be wrong. We'll find out on November 26. Until then, that nagging question remains. Have we just been played? And if not, why bother us over breakfast?