Thailand-Colombia Ceasefire: Fragile Peace In Southeast Asia

The immediate unconditional ceasefire Thailand and Cambodia have enforced from midnight Monday has for now paused the armed conflict, which had resulted in the death of at least 30 people and the displacement of hundreds of thousands. But the tenuous peace, to be monitored by an ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) observatory team, could do little to resolve the underlying mutual distrust between the elites in Bangkok and Phnom Penh. Indeed, the long-standing border dispute surrounding ancient Hindu temples has served the Thai military and Cambodia’s one-party state to periodically ratchet up nationalist rhetoric to shore up their narrow power base.

The death of a Cambodian soldier during border skirmishes in May dramatically escalated hostilities in subsequent weeks, with military officials trading accusations of intensifying attacks. Bangkok declared martial law, even recalled its ambassador to Phnom Penh, and unilaterally closed its border. According to the Cambodian Mine Action Center, MK-82 bombs weighing 230 kg were dropped for the first time in nearly five decades proximate to the Preah Vihear Temple, declared a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. Ominously, Cambodia’s strongman former leader of nearly four decades, Hun Sen, from the Cambodian People’s Party, and current president of the nation’s senate, called on his countrymen to prepare for war. Thailand’s acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai struck an equally alarmist tone last week.

Exacerbating bilateral tensions, no less, is an interpersonal feud between the erstwhile leaders of the two countries. Having installed his son Hu Manet as prime minister after the sham 2023 general elections, Sen is no less a political heavyweight. Conversely, Thailand’s populist billionaire tycoon and former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, has been within touching distance of the corridors of power after his return home following years spent in exile consequent to his ouster in a military coup. Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was the country’s prime minister until July, when Hun leaked a conversation with her the previous month, where she reportedly made disparaging comments on the Thai military leaders in connection with the death of a Cambodian soldier. The uproar from the revelation led to Paetongtarn’s suspension from office by the Constitutional Court and speculation that Thaksin and his Pheu Party are a spent force in Thai politics.

Thailand, Cambodia Agree To 'Immediate And Unconditional' Ceasefire For Ending Deadly Border Clashes

Above all, the current conflict mirrors the fragility of democratic institutions in both countries. In Thailand, the Constitutional Court has disbanded opposition parties, including, in 2024, Move Forward, which resoundingly won the 2023 general elections, and its antecedent, Future Forward, in 2020. The military, in cohorts with the political elite, has systematically weaponised the country’s lese majeste law to criminalise parties that have sought to reform the monarchy. Phnom Penh has similarly banned the main opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party, from its territory. The people of the two Southeast Asian states desperately need redemption from their narrow elites.