ET Analysis: Waqf Bill passing evens out traditional coalition hump

New Delhi: Political camps across the aisle acknowledge that the Parliament passing the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, even when the third Modi government is lacking BJP's solo majority in the Houses and is dependent on its allies for crossing the half-way mark, has marked a significant shift in the dynamics of coalition politics as the Bill's passage has evened out the traditional coalition bump over the allies' demonstrated political sensitivity towards issues concerning minority communities.

BJP allies, especially TDP, JDU and LJP( Ram Vilas), which rode the Modi government's push with the Waqf Bill, were the same allies that forced the Vajpayee government to limit itself to a common minimum programme by putting the BJP's core ideological planks into the coalition cold-storage by citing their sensitivity to Muslim sentiments.

Therefore, the political importance of the Modi government pushing the Waqf Bill (a topic whose sensitivity on religious scale is on a par with that of Article 370, UCC and triple talaq ) through coalition sensitivity is being seen more significant than the second Modi government passing the Bills to scrap Article 370 and Triple Talaq by using the BJP's overwhelming majority in the last Lok Sabha to effectively neutralise the capacity of the then allies and fence-sitters to oppose, bargain and blackmail.

To some, this shows how the coalition politics dynamics, and glue of power, is shifting to 'majority sensitivity' as the new electoral pivot.

Many leaders feel this successful push of the Waqf Bill could signal three factors; Firstly, the episode diminishes the Opposition hope of NDA allies endangering the third Modi government over ideological differences; secondly, the passage of the Waqf Bill could whet the government's appetite for going ahead on its pending ideological agenda -- the Uniform Civil Code -- at a time of its political convenience; thirdly, the emboldened coalition confidence could make the government act more ambitiously on the economic and governance reform agenda by making allies more accommodative on reasonable terms. This coalition backdrop makes stakes in the year-end Bihar assembly polls high for both sides; for the BJP and Centre, to build on the political and coalition space, and for the Opposition to regain some political winds. In the political play in Parliament that preceded the passing of the Waqf Bill, the Opposition watched how the power-play of the Modi government has conditioned NDA allies to their coalition limits. The LJP, which had pulled out of the Vajpayee government over the Gujarat riots due to its sensitivity to Bihar's Muslim voters, has now backed the Waqf Bill ahead of the Bihar poll just as is done by TDP, which had protested loudly during the Gujarat issue due to its 'minority sensitivity' (while still backing the Vajpayee government) and later pulled out of the first Modi government over the AP special status issue only to be chastened enough to return to the BJP. JDU supporting the Bill, even by risking Muslim resentment before the Bihar poll, didn't surprise many as it is being seen as a more 'tamed party' with Nitish Kumar visibly not in his political elements.

BJP allies justified their support to the Bill by claiming the government addressed their concerns over the retrospective clause and in maintaining state governments' say in state Waqf councils even as the Opposition in Parliament, and the Muslim establishment outside, were thrashing these same assurances as mere eye-wash.