Asylum backlog would've spiralled due to Tory policies including Rwanda plan, report shows

The asylum backlog would have spiralled to record levels under Tory policies including the failed Rwanda deportation plan, research shows.

A major report from the Refugee Council has found inherited an asylum system in “meltdown” that had been brought to a “near-standstill” due to Conservative mismanagement. It found that without ’s decision to scrap the Rwanda plan and kick-start asylum decision making, the backlog of people waiting for an initial judgement could have ballooned to over 177,000 by January - higher than in the pandemic.

According to the report’s analysis, 70% of those who crossed the channel in the year up to June would be expected to be recognised as refugees - yet 96% of those claims were outstanding when the election was called. The backlog is now projected to be closer to 118,000 under Labour - some 59,000 fewer cases than if no action had been taken. Researchers say this could generate savings of up to £240million in asylum support.

In total the report found that just over half of people - some 62,000 - whose asylum claims can now be processed may be recognised as refugees. One in 10 of those who were waiting for an initial decision at the end of June were Afghan nationals, and a third of the people came from either , Iran, Syria, Eritrea or Syria – all countries whose nationals have a very high likelihood of being recognised as a refugee.

The Refugee Council warned that other “immediate challenges” Labour must now address to move from a “rescue” approach of the asylum system to “recovery and long term reform”. It warned that homelessness among refugees increased by 253% between July 2023 and March 2024 as a result of a push to clear the backlog.

And its report also raised concerns about a growing backlog of asylum appeals as a result of decision making being sped up. It also said safe routes to the UK must be reviewed and expanded as it warned that 2024 has already become the deadliest year for small boat crossings.

The report recommends Labour completely repeal the Illegal Migration Act, which became law last year(2023) and is blamed for the asylum system’s productivity sinking to its lowest point since the Covid pandemic. Mr Starmer’s government has already amended the law, which is helping to speed up decision making of asylum claims.

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, said: “The Government inherited an asylum system that was utterly broken. Decisive early action has been taken to stop the system from falling over but, instead of mending and making do, there needs to be comprehensive reform to create a fair, orderly and humane asylum system.

“People seeking asylum need quick decisions so they can feel secure about their future in Britain, while the public needs to feel confident that the Government is making fair decisions about who can stay in the UK and who cannot. Asylum applications are moving again, but we are concerned that there is no clear plan yet to improve the rate of decision-making to keep pace with applications and avoid another backlog emerging. Any strategy to reduce the number of people crossing the Channel to seek asylum in the UK must include putting in place safe and legal routes for those refugees who are eligible."

A Home Office spokesman said: "This government took quick action to restore order to the asylum system that we inherited by restarting asylum processing to clear the backlog. This is happening as we continue to remove more people with no right to be here – with over 3,000 people returned since we formed government – while also driving down the costs of asylum accommodation to for the taxpayer.”

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